Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-13 2.250009 3.030362 4.118396 5.795421 8.408929e+00 1.249948e+01 1.977081e+01
2025-04-20 1.463002 2.249537 3.558803 6.059443 1.115774e+01 2.231779e+01 5.343603e+01
2025-04-27 1.074846 1.847295 3.348437 6.859155 1.632658e+01 4.716632e+01 2.121316e+02
2025-05-04 0.825488 1.562623 3.209392 7.895554 2.495571e+01 1.164985e+02 1.611176e+03
2025-05-11 0.625364 1.278544 2.915312 8.452217 3.548681e+01 2.972285e+02 4.246529e+04
2025-05-18 0.460170 0.994118 2.449960 8.083422 4.344010e+01 6.808384e+02 8.530551e+09
2025-05-25 0.339830 0.764726 1.999546 7.312610 4.865604e+01 1.489978e+03 NaN
2025-06-01 0.278182 0.658801 1.858812 7.807881 7.121029e+01 8.307152e+03 NaN
2025-06-08 0.230450 0.570525 1.723125 8.244258 1.046745e+02 1.268103e+05 NaN
2025-06-15 0.196825 0.509023 1.646875 9.046880 1.706293e+02 1.710976e+13 NaN
2025-06-22 0.168977 0.453858 1.561047 9.754993 2.801661e+02 NaN NaN
2025-06-29 0.140868 0.387249 1.383900 9.402909 3.666534e+02 NaN NaN
2025-07-06 0.115135 0.321785 1.182133 8.545029 4.261552e+02 NaN NaN
2025-07-13 0.100502 0.289364 1.117959 9.080218 7.606825e+02 NaN NaN
2025-07-20 0.090896 0.271231 1.114781 10.517806 1.974005e+03 NaN NaN
2025-07-27 0.083032 0.256597 1.122180 12.404169 7.086332e+03 NaN NaN
2025-08-03 0.074387 0.235772 1.079368 13.482697 2.481103e+04 NaN NaN
2025-08-10 0.064720 0.207630 0.971839 12.903943 5.048571e+04 NaN NaN
2025-08-17 0.055765 0.179838 0.849903 11.592805 6.671299e+04 NaN NaN
2025-08-24 0.050884 0.167526 0.822743 12.525375 6.176778e+05 NaN NaN
2025-08-31 0.046486 0.155875 0.792389 13.358738 4.864481e+07 NaN NaN
2025-09-07 0.043109 0.147600 0.780814 14.873396 NaN NaN NaN
2025-09-14 0.039923 0.139182 0.762484 16.233385 NaN NaN NaN